Whether the current ada price usd shall be capable of breaking its all-time high ($3.10 in September 2021) is dependent on a thorough study of technology, ecology and macro cycles. At the time of writing in November 2023, ADA’s price ranged from $0.25, having dropped 92% from its peak, ranking 8th in capitalization (CoinMarketCap statistics), while Bitcoin dipped by only 53% and Ethereum by 60% in the same duration. In terms of volatility, ADA’s 30-day yearly volatility is 68%, higher than Bitcoin’s (45%) and the S&P 500 index (15%). The ferocity might make the increase and decrease but to break the last top, at least a 1,140% rise is required, much larger than the ferocity of the 325% year-on-year jump in the 2021 bull run.
Market cycle theories suggest that crypto assets tend to reach all-time highs 12 to 18 months after the Bitcoin halving. The fourth Bitcoin halving happens in April 2024. Given that patterns recur historically, the ada price usd may make its cycle peak in mid-2025. For instance, after halving in 2017, the price appreciation was up to 2,900% (0.02 – 0.60 US dollars), and after halving in 2020, the price appreciation was up to 3,200% (0.03 – 0.99 US dollars). However, the underlying macro environment is much different: The Fed’s 5.5% interest rate is a 22-year peak, and the tightening of dollar liquidity can smother the advance. According to Bloomberg’s predictions, if interest rates are decreased by 75 basis points in 2024, the market capitalization of the crypto industry could expand by 40%, and ADA could go up to $1.2- $1.5 but still be below 50% of its all-time high.
There is partial support from on-chain metrics and ecological developments. The value staked on the Cardano network totaled 22.9 billion ADA (accounting for 64.3%), and the yearly rate return was 3.8%. Stakers’ average holding period is 2.3 years, a figure higher than the industry average of 1.5 years (IntoTheBlock figures). The TVL of the DeFi ecosystem has reached $520 million (DefiLlama) and the Minswap leading DEX has exceeded $210 million in its monthly trading volume (with a 75% monthly increase). If the Hydra expansion solution maintains a TPS of 1,000 (already at 250), The network efficiency enhancement could attract more developers (today, the rate of growth of the number of Dapps is 120% per year). Yet, as compared to Ethereum (TVL 28 billion US dollars), the Cardano network has to grow 50 times in order to reach its valuation in 2021.
Regulatory risks are a significant threat. In June 2023, Binance was sued by the SEC for listing ADA as an “unregistered security”, and its share price fell by 22% in a day. If the suit intensifies (probability models state that there’s a 65% probability of regulation tightening in 2024), liquidity may decrease further. Conversely, if the United States implements clear crypto regulations (such as the draft FIT21 Act in July 2023), institution inflow can drive the ada price usd. Historically, after clarification of the compliance path for ETH 2.0 upgrade in 2020, the price went up by 800% in two years.
Technical indicators suggest that short-term momentum is limited. Current RSI of ADA (on 14th) is 51, MACD line is still below the zero axis, the Bollinger Bands have narrowed to 0.019, and a breakout requires trading volume to rise above 500 million US dollars a day (currently 240 million). The derivatives market indicates that the open interest on ADA call options to expire in June 2024 at a price of $1 is only 3% of the total, with an implied volatility of 78%, far less than 220% in the 2021 bull market, indicating that there is no faith in a huge surge.
In summary, the ada price usd breaking a new high requires the convergence of multiple conditions: the Bitcoin halving cycle pulling, Cardano ecosystem TVL increasing by more than 500%, regulatory policy turn from tightening to easing, and US dollar liquidity easing (e.g., a decrease of 150 basis points in interest rates). By the ARK Invest probability model, ADA’s chances of breaking through $3 before 2025 are less than 15%. But if it breaks through the pivotal resistance of $1 (the high watermark before June 2022), technical buying may drive through a staged correction to $2.2-$2.5 (the price of Fibonacci retracement). The investors must balance the risks (maximum drawdown of more than 80%) against the potential gains and minimizes the influence of volatility by dynamic hedging (option portfolio) or ordinary investment strategies.